By Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer, Bruno Dorin
How will the area have the capacity to feed as regards to nine billion humans in 2050 and nonetheless preserve the ecosystems? during this standpoint, INRA and CIRAD introduced the initiative, in 2006, to strengthen a foresight venture for analysing matters referring to the world's foodstuff and agricultural structures at the 2050 timeline. This ebook offers an artificial presentation of the most conclusions that this foresight venture has yielded. First, it recapitulates the most statistical references for the interval 1961 to 2003, sooner than happening to explain the Agribiom simulation software used to calculate nutrition biomass source use balances. eventualities at the 2050 timeline are then thought of: Agrimonde cross is a trend-based state of affairs that bets on financial progress to feed the area, in a context the place environmental security isn't really a concern; by contrast, the assumption in Agrimonde 1 is to feed the realm whereas protecting its ecosystems.
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Extra resources for Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050
Potentially Cultivable Lands At the end of the 1990s, the aim of the FAO and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), via Fischer et al. (2001, 2000, 2002), was to carry out a new evaluation of the world’s potential agricultural production by means of recent breakthroughs in satellite imagery and GIS (Geographical Information System) techniques. This approach, called Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ), is based on the Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) which has been the subject of various studies over the past 20 years.
E. grid-cells of a few square kilometres. These data belong to the following two sets: data on agro-ecological environments, on the one hand, and data on possible land utilisation, on the other. 2 million cells of 5 min latitude/longitude), • the slopes (digital elevation model GTOPO30 at 30 arc-second latitude/longitude), • the “current” land occupation (12 “aggregate” types of occupation drawn from GLCC maps at 30 arc-seconds latitude/longitude, based on satellite images probably taken in 1992/1993).
14 Online FAOSTAT glossary (2008): “Permanent crops are sown or planted once, and then occupy the land for some years and need not be replanted after each annual harvest, such as cocoa, coffee and rubber. This category includes flowering shrubs, fruit trees, nut trees and vines, but excludes trees grown for wood or timber”. 15 Online FAOSTAT glossary (2008): “Permanent meadows and pastures is the land used permanently (five years or more) to grow herbaceous forage crops, either cultivated or growing wild (wild prairie or grazing land).